Casino maths
Expected Value in Casino Games Explained
Expected value, or EV, is the probability-weighted average result of an action across repeated trials. Multiply each possible net result by its probability, then add those products.
A simple example
If an even coin pays a net gain of one chip for heads and loses one chip for tails, EV is (0.5 × 1) + (0.5 × −1) = 0 chips per flip.
Negative EV and house edge
A game with a 4% house edge has a theoretical EV of −0.04 chips per chip wagered under its stated rules. That is a long-run average, not the exact cost of the next round.
Choices can change EV
In games such as blackjack or video poker, different decisions can produce different expected values. Correct strategy reduces the mathematical disadvantage but cannot remove random short-term variation.
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